[Updated 2020-04-18 @ 2350 to note dates we hit 4000 daily deaths and 37000 total deaths]
26 March: Math Sucks
8000 dead between 2 and 9 April <--- Hit on 4 April
3 April: Math is unrelenting
64000 dead on the 13th or 14th of April <--- Missed! 25800 dead on 14 April. 64K looks quite a ways out
10 April: Doublings
4000 daily deaths between 16 and 19 April <--- Hit on 16 April (although that may be a result of the NY data rejigger)
37000 deaths between 16 and 19 April <--- Hit on 18 April
The curve is bending. As of 15 April, doubling on total deaths is about 8 days, doubling on daily deaths is about 9 days. These effects are the results of decisions implemented between 26 March and 1 April. We are succeeding at slowing the spread.
For some time New York/New Jersey has been the dominant region in our death count. New York may be showing a leveling off, having hit a peak of 800 deaths on the 10th, but they revised their counts to include probable COVID deaths which is going to make the data wonky. As other regions (Connecticut is really part of New York/New Jersey but Michigan, Massachusetts, and Louisiana are all contributing over a 1000 deaths each now) bring their counts up they may overwhelm the effect of New York's leveling (if it's real).
Simple doubling projections are beginning to fail, with reality below the low side of them. That is good.
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